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Handbook of Warning Intelligence
«Cynthia Grabo’s original Handbook of Warning Intelligence, written in the aftermath of the Soviet/Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia has, at long last, been fully declassified. The hitherto secret Part III of her study is now accessible for a public readership in this definitive volume. Professionals, scholars of Intelligence and Security Studies, students of International Affairs, and readers sharing an interest in Conflict and Crisis Management generally will all gain valuable historical and analytical insights from this most valuable—and greatly valued—manual. The focal points on the hitherto classified Part III are on intelligence analysis relating to particular types of warfare, and the provision of relevant, actionable warning intelligence to policy makers. Although the original time frame of the Handbook preceded the contemporary threat of Militant Jihadism, Cynthia Grabo’s risk assessments should provide important insights into current, all the more complex intelligence challenges facing analysts and policy makers. The issues addressed in the concluding chapters dealing with the making of analytical judgments regarding imminent threats, and with conveying these threat warnings upwards to managers and policy maker, are all the more telling and pertinent in today’s very volatile global security environment. This is a “need to know” Handbook of Warning Intelligence, a Complete and Declassified Work of Cynthina Grabo.»
Martin Rudner, distinguished research professor emeritus at Carleton University, Ottawa. Prior to hi
This new and final edition is a follow-up to the author’s first book, Anticipating Surprise (University Press of America, 2002) and the Handbook of Warning Intelligence (Scarecrow Press, 2010). The first book was an abridged version of Grabo’s 1972 manuscript, of which only 200 pages were allowed to be published by the government. Les mer
This new and final edition is a follow-up to the author’s first book, Anticipating Surprise (University Press of America, 2002) and the Handbook of Warning Intelligence (Scarecrow Press, 2010). The first book was an abridged version of Grabo’s 1972 manuscript, of which only 200 pages were allowed to be published by the government. The second book was published after it was agreed that the last 10 chapters would remain classified. These final 10 chapters have recently been released by the government and complete the manuscript as it was originally intended to be published by the author in 1972.
The Handbook of Warning Intelligence was written during the cold war and was classified for 40 years. Originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts, it explains the fundamentals of intelligence analysis and forecasting, discusses military analysis, as well as the difficulties in understanding political, civil, and economic analysis and assessing what it means for analysts to have "warning judgment."
Much of what Grabo wrote in her book seems to appear in many of the numerous commission reports that emerged after the 9/11 attacks. However, her book was written in response to the "surprise attack" of the Soviet Union's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. According to the author, that event was no surprise. And while analysts have to take some of the blame for their failure to strenuously present their case that the threat was real and imminent, what occurred was a failure by policymakers to listen to the warning intelligence reports that were written at the time.
In these last chapters, Grabo discusses scenarios where the United States will need to take action, especially describing Soviet indicators of such action. She also talks on how to influence policymakers to take, or not take, action based on intelligence. After the Soviet Union fell, the government was hesitant to release this information—especially considering what's going on with Putin today.
The Handbook of Warning Intelligence was written during the cold war and was classified for 40 years. Originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts, it explains the fundamentals of intelligence analysis and forecasting, discusses military analysis, as well as the difficulties in understanding political, civil, and economic analysis and assessing what it means for analysts to have "warning judgment."
Much of what Grabo wrote in her book seems to appear in many of the numerous commission reports that emerged after the 9/11 attacks. However, her book was written in response to the "surprise attack" of the Soviet Union's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. According to the author, that event was no surprise. And while analysts have to take some of the blame for their failure to strenuously present their case that the threat was real and imminent, what occurred was a failure by policymakers to listen to the warning intelligence reports that were written at the time.
In these last chapters, Grabo discusses scenarios where the United States will need to take action, especially describing Soviet indicators of such action. She also talks on how to influence policymakers to take, or not take, action based on intelligence. After the Soviet Union fell, the government was hesitant to release this information—especially considering what's going on with Putin today.
Detaljer
- Forlag
- Rowman & Littlefield
- Innbinding
- Paperback
- Språk
- Engelsk
- ISBN
- 9781442248137
- Utgivelsesår
- 2015
- Format
- 23 x 16 cm
Anmeldelser
«Cynthia Grabo’s original Handbook of Warning Intelligence, written in the aftermath of the Soviet/Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia has, at long last, been fully declassified. The hitherto secret Part III of her study is now accessible for a public readership in this definitive volume. Professionals, scholars of Intelligence and Security Studies, students of International Affairs, and readers sharing an interest in Conflict and Crisis Management generally will all gain valuable historical and analytical insights from this most valuable—and greatly valued—manual. The focal points on the hitherto classified Part III are on intelligence analysis relating to particular types of warfare, and the provision of relevant, actionable warning intelligence to policy makers. Although the original time frame of the Handbook preceded the contemporary threat of Militant Jihadism, Cynthia Grabo’s risk assessments should provide important insights into current, all the more complex intelligence challenges facing analysts and policy makers. The issues addressed in the concluding chapters dealing with the making of analytical judgments regarding imminent threats, and with conveying these threat warnings upwards to managers and policy maker, are all the more telling and pertinent in today’s very volatile global security environment. This is a “need to know” Handbook of Warning Intelligence, a Complete and Declassified Work of Cynthina Grabo.»
Martin Rudner, distinguished research professor emeritus at Carleton University, Ottawa. Prior to hi
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